OSCAR PREDICTIONS 2014!
With the Oscars being tomorrow, there's no better time than to choose and decide which films will take home the gold, and which were unjustly snubbed! I choose the films that SHOULD win a miniature statue, and the ones that WILL, for better or worst, take the trophy.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: (Blue Jasmine, Nebraska, Dallas Buyers Club, Her, American Hustle)
Should Win: Nebraska. Her has the flashiest concept, and very well written, quirky dialogue coming out of a mousy Amy Adams and a mustachioed Joaquin Phoenix. But everything in Payne's Nebraska felt real to me, and his filmography deserves a third writing Oscar for Bob Nelson's genuinely rural sounding work.
Will Win: Her. Spike Jonze is up for three awards; producing this film, writing "The Moon Song" and penning this script. This'll be the one he gets the Academy Award for.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: (12 Years a Slave, Philomena, The Wolf of Wall Street, Before Midnight, Captain Phillips)
Should/Will Win: 12 Years a Slave. While a WOWS victory would set a record for most profanities in a winning script, 12 Years' elegant language reflecting the antebellum times is too good not to reward.
BEST ANIMATED FILM: (Ernest and Celestine, Frozen, Despicable Me 2, The Wind Rises, The Croods)
Should/Will Win: Frozen. This is the first year I haven't seen a SINGLE nominee! (I'll wait for you to get over the fact I'm the last human being/snowman who hasn't seen Frozen yet). So I'm judging this on Frozen's box-office success, its truly remarkable word of mouth and the fact that its only true rival is the anime The Wind Rises, which isn't saying much.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: (Barkhad Abdi, Jonah Hill, Bradley Cooper, Michael Fassbender, Jared Leto)
Should Win: Jonah Hill. Hear me out. While I would adore it if Abdi duplicated his BAFTA win, I think Hill deserves the prize here. Abdi and Fassbender were both scene-chewing villains, and Cooper was even pretty good as legendary cop-wannabe Richie DiMaso. But none of them stole the scenes from their leading actors like Hill did, who easily eclipsed DiCaprio in a number of scenes in WOWS, which considering how manic his sleazeball tycoon Belfort was is no easy feat. His Donnie was one of the funniest characters I saw all year, and that pitch-perfect New York accent was icing.
Will Win: Jared Leto. It's not a travesty Leto's winning by any means, it's a bold performance where he has to risk emasculating himself to portray an honest character. He didn't win the BAFTA only because Dallas Buyers Club was completely shut out!
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: (Lupita Nyong'o, Jennifer Lawrence, Sally Hawkins, Julia Roberts, June Squibb)
Should/Will Win: Lupita Nyong'o. This season's most unpredictable category has seen the power shift between Lawrence and Nyong'o. Arguably they were both the best parts about their respective movies, but even though Lawrence is the it girl right now and her sexy, firecracker housewife had a lot of good zingers and improvisational meltdowns, Nyong'o's Patsey was devastating. Her character had absolutely no good reason to continue existing, a tortured human being in all aspects; yet she infused humanity and sensitivity into her. I hope and believe the Academy will recognize the Yale-trained actress' accomplishment.
BEST DIRECTOR: (Alfonso Cuaron, Martin Scorsese, Steve McQueen, Alexander Payne, David O. Russell)
Should/Will Win: Alfonso Cuaron. Comparisons are being drawn between Cuaron and Ang Lee, who won last year for a similarly difficult effort featuring complex visuals and lone survivors. They're deserved, and like Life of Pi Cuaron will take home the gold; that's a safe bet.
BEST ACTOR: (Leonardo DiCaprio, Bruce Dern, Chiwetel Ejiofor, Matthew McConuaghey, Christian Bale)
Should Win: Chiwetel Ejiofor. Ejiofor and McConaughey both truly, truly deserve this prize, surpassing their competition easily. So it comes down to this: which is the hardest to portray: being a slave or an AIDS patient? My choice is still Ejiofor, who I believe was able to broadcast more emotions, more restrained feeling and frustration as Solomon Northup. But this is a fantastic race, and there's no real loser here.
Will Win: Matthew McConaughey. Surfer, Dude? Failure to Launch? Fool's Gold? All mistakes that have been atoned after this unrepeatable, truly incredible comeback year with films like Mud, WOWS and his crowning achievement as Ron Woodroof, a man who refuses to go easily in Dallas Buyers Club. I can't wait to see him up there, smiling, holding the Oscar and saying "Alright, alright, alright." It's earned.
BEST ACTRESS: (Cate Blanchett, Amy Adams, Judi Dench, Sandra Bullock, Meryl Streep)
Should Win: Meryl Streep. This is a superb race, and in any year ANY of these five ladies could win. But for my money, Streep, that Oscar monster, gave it her all in her role as southern matriarch Vi Weston, a terrifying mother who's mouth is literally burning as she dishes out her scathing insults. To think this was the same woman who portrayed Margaret Thatcher is mind blowing.
Will Win: Cate Blanchett. I was all the way on the Blanchett train until I saw August: Osage County. It's such a juicy role, that of a woman who's not quite middle aged, still in her prime, but whose life is slowly getting vanquished by circumstance and a Madoff-like husband's downfall. It's completely merited, and like Hill, she nailed an accent that went the extra mile for her character.
BEST PICTURE: (Nebraska, Her, Philomena, 12 Years a Slave, American Hustle, Gravity, The Wolf of Wall Street, Dallas Buyers Club, Captain Phillips)
Should/Will Win: 12 Years a Slave. The media wants to tell you it's a big three way race between 12 Years, Gravity and American Hustle. But let's be honest here folks: it was always going to be 12 Years a Slave from the start! It's taken the Golden Globe for Best Drama, because even though the performances were superior in other films according the Foreign Press, they all knew this was the better film. The Critic's Choice Award, the BAFTA for Best Picture...it only lost Best Cast in the SAGs to Hustle because Hustle had all those pretty celebrity faces. 12 Years a Slave is not entertainment, it is a thoroughly depressing film about the realities of slavery and the incalculable cost it had on the slaves, and to some extent, the master's lives. Hustle is a fun movie. Gravity is visually breathtaking. But 12 Years a Slave is essential cinema viewing, and the reason movies still can punch you in the gut and you're perfectly OK with it keep getting made. It is a work of art, and will join the ranks of Rocky, The Best Years of Our Lives and On the Waterfront in the pantheon of Best Pictures. It will be well deserved.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: (Blue Jasmine, Nebraska, Dallas Buyers Club, Her, American Hustle)
Should Win: Nebraska. Her has the flashiest concept, and very well written, quirky dialogue coming out of a mousy Amy Adams and a mustachioed Joaquin Phoenix. But everything in Payne's Nebraska felt real to me, and his filmography deserves a third writing Oscar for Bob Nelson's genuinely rural sounding work.
Will Win: Her. Spike Jonze is up for three awards; producing this film, writing "The Moon Song" and penning this script. This'll be the one he gets the Academy Award for.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: (12 Years a Slave, Philomena, The Wolf of Wall Street, Before Midnight, Captain Phillips)
Should/Will Win: 12 Years a Slave. While a WOWS victory would set a record for most profanities in a winning script, 12 Years' elegant language reflecting the antebellum times is too good not to reward.
BEST ANIMATED FILM: (Ernest and Celestine, Frozen, Despicable Me 2, The Wind Rises, The Croods)
Should/Will Win: Frozen. This is the first year I haven't seen a SINGLE nominee! (I'll wait for you to get over the fact I'm the last human being/snowman who hasn't seen Frozen yet). So I'm judging this on Frozen's box-office success, its truly remarkable word of mouth and the fact that its only true rival is the anime The Wind Rises, which isn't saying much.BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: (Barkhad Abdi, Jonah Hill, Bradley Cooper, Michael Fassbender, Jared Leto)
Should Win: Jonah Hill. Hear me out. While I would adore it if Abdi duplicated his BAFTA win, I think Hill deserves the prize here. Abdi and Fassbender were both scene-chewing villains, and Cooper was even pretty good as legendary cop-wannabe Richie DiMaso. But none of them stole the scenes from their leading actors like Hill did, who easily eclipsed DiCaprio in a number of scenes in WOWS, which considering how manic his sleazeball tycoon Belfort was is no easy feat. His Donnie was one of the funniest characters I saw all year, and that pitch-perfect New York accent was icing.
Will Win: Jared Leto. It's not a travesty Leto's winning by any means, it's a bold performance where he has to risk emasculating himself to portray an honest character. He didn't win the BAFTA only because Dallas Buyers Club was completely shut out!BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: (Lupita Nyong'o, Jennifer Lawrence, Sally Hawkins, Julia Roberts, June Squibb)
Should/Will Win: Lupita Nyong'o. This season's most unpredictable category has seen the power shift between Lawrence and Nyong'o. Arguably they were both the best parts about their respective movies, but even though Lawrence is the it girl right now and her sexy, firecracker housewife had a lot of good zingers and improvisational meltdowns, Nyong'o's Patsey was devastating. Her character had absolutely no good reason to continue existing, a tortured human being in all aspects; yet she infused humanity and sensitivity into her. I hope and believe the Academy will recognize the Yale-trained actress' accomplishment.
BEST DIRECTOR: (Alfonso Cuaron, Martin Scorsese, Steve McQueen, Alexander Payne, David O. Russell)
Should/Will Win: Alfonso Cuaron. Comparisons are being drawn between Cuaron and Ang Lee, who won last year for a similarly difficult effort featuring complex visuals and lone survivors. They're deserved, and like Life of Pi Cuaron will take home the gold; that's a safe bet.
BEST ACTOR: (Leonardo DiCaprio, Bruce Dern, Chiwetel Ejiofor, Matthew McConuaghey, Christian Bale)
Should Win: Chiwetel Ejiofor. Ejiofor and McConaughey both truly, truly deserve this prize, surpassing their competition easily. So it comes down to this: which is the hardest to portray: being a slave or an AIDS patient? My choice is still Ejiofor, who I believe was able to broadcast more emotions, more restrained feeling and frustration as Solomon Northup. But this is a fantastic race, and there's no real loser here.
Will Win: Matthew McConaughey. Surfer, Dude? Failure to Launch? Fool's Gold? All mistakes that have been atoned after this unrepeatable, truly incredible comeback year with films like Mud, WOWS and his crowning achievement as Ron Woodroof, a man who refuses to go easily in Dallas Buyers Club. I can't wait to see him up there, smiling, holding the Oscar and saying "Alright, alright, alright." It's earned.
BEST ACTRESS: (Cate Blanchett, Amy Adams, Judi Dench, Sandra Bullock, Meryl Streep)
Should Win: Meryl Streep. This is a superb race, and in any year ANY of these five ladies could win. But for my money, Streep, that Oscar monster, gave it her all in her role as southern matriarch Vi Weston, a terrifying mother who's mouth is literally burning as she dishes out her scathing insults. To think this was the same woman who portrayed Margaret Thatcher is mind blowing.
BEST PICTURE: (Nebraska, Her, Philomena, 12 Years a Slave, American Hustle, Gravity, The Wolf of Wall Street, Dallas Buyers Club, Captain Phillips)
Should/Will Win: 12 Years a Slave. The media wants to tell you it's a big three way race between 12 Years, Gravity and American Hustle. But let's be honest here folks: it was always going to be 12 Years a Slave from the start! It's taken the Golden Globe for Best Drama, because even though the performances were superior in other films according the Foreign Press, they all knew this was the better film. The Critic's Choice Award, the BAFTA for Best Picture...it only lost Best Cast in the SAGs to Hustle because Hustle had all those pretty celebrity faces. 12 Years a Slave is not entertainment, it is a thoroughly depressing film about the realities of slavery and the incalculable cost it had on the slaves, and to some extent, the master's lives. Hustle is a fun movie. Gravity is visually breathtaking. But 12 Years a Slave is essential cinema viewing, and the reason movies still can punch you in the gut and you're perfectly OK with it keep getting made. It is a work of art, and will join the ranks of Rocky, The Best Years of Our Lives and On the Waterfront in the pantheon of Best Pictures. It will be well deserved.
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