OSCAR PREDICTIONS 2016

The Oscar nominations are coming right around the corner! After a surprising Golden Globes, where The Revenant had a near sweep of three of the night's biggest awards, really anything could happen! Interestingly enough, Revenant isn't even up for a Best Cast nomination at the SAGs. No movie since the SAG's inception in 1995 (Braveheart) has won without a  Best Cast ensemble. Then again, eccentric choices like The Birdcage and The Full Monty have won, so it's anyone's guess. My choices for Best Picture are equally eccentric: you have fantastical blockbusters like Fury Road and Martian here, along with solid indies (Carol and Brooklyn) and movies with big stars and small-ish budgets (Spotlight and The Big Short). I lost my bananas last year when The Lego Movie only got a sole nomination for "Everything is Awesome!!!" I won't be that surprised if Inside Out doesn't make it with the big dogs, but I will lose what is left of my faith in the Oscars if they don't give IO at least a best animation nod. Enough of my grudges and blathering. Here are my choices for the wannabe candidates!

BEST PICTURE: I largely underestimated the power of American Sniper last year, but I think this is a fairly air-tight choice for the nominees. The only wild card: how many there'll be. My guess is going to be 9. Or they could, you know, reward the brilliant movies of 2015 with all of their eligible slots, but that'd make too much sense, right? 

• Inside Out
• Carol
• Spotlight
• The Martian
• The Revenant
• Mad Max: Fury Road
• Room
• Brooklyn
• Bridge of Spies
• The Big Short

BEST ACTOR: After the Fruitvale Station snub, I wouldn't be surprised if the Academy doesn't recognize Michael B. Jordan in Creed. However, after Sly's standing O at the Globes the other night, he's my pick to win the whole thing in Supporting Actor. Don't be surprised if Whitey Bulger reincarnate Johnny Depp is able to win voters for his triumphant critically acclaimed turn in Black Mass.

• Leonardo DiCaprio- The Revenant
• Matt Damon- The Martian
• Bryan Cranston- Trumbo
• Eddie Redmayne- The Danish Girl
• Michael Fassbender- Steve Jobs

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: I was not expecting Kate Winslet to take the Globe for her turn in Steve Jobs, a movie that's still eluded me. All the critic's buzz has been aimed at Vikander. Speaking of the breakthrough actress, I think Danish Girl will prove to be too Oscar-baity to refuse, and though I'm 99.9% sure she's getting nominated for something, I don't think it'll be for her graceful turn in Ex Machina.

• Helen Mirren- Trumbo
• Alicia Vikander- The Danish Girl
• Rooney Mara- Carol
• Jennifer Jason Leigh-  The Hateful Eight
• Kate Winslet- Steve Jobs

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: This category is WIDE open. Any of the boys from Hateful 8 could pull a surprise nomination (namely Kurt Russell) and Paul Dano could be seeing his first nomination for Love and Mercy. But Oscar has been kind to Mark Ruffalo twice, and I think he'll get a second consecutive nomination in this category after last year's Foxcatcher. Including Elba is a bit of a gamble, but Shannon, Sly and Rylance are surefire nominees.

• Mark Rylance- Bridge of Spies
• Idris Elba- Beasts of No Nation
• Mark Ruffalo- Spotlight
• Michael Shannon- 99 Homes
• Sylvester Stallone- Creed

BEST ACTRESS: I think the Academy is going to play nice and let Vikander and Mara be considered supporting actresses, leaving this field ready for Cate Blanchett to not have to compete against her co-star of Carol. No one's seen 45 Years, but it's a huge indie critical darling, and like last year with Marion Cotillard's French performance in Two Days, One Night, expect people all over Twitter to be hash-tagging #whoisthisoldwoman. Joy is a meh movie, but after her Globe win and the fact she's been nominated thrice before, I think J-Law's great role as Joy not-Mangano-Mangano will be enough to have her recognized. She's got no chance though: this is Brie Larson's year. Room, please come to Virginia!

• Cate Blanchett- Carol
• Brie Larson- Room
• Saoirse Ronan- Brooklyn
• Charlotte Rampling- 45 Years
• Jennifer Lawrence- Joy

BEST DIRECTOR: The Director's Guild Awards just came out: George Miller is all but guaranteed a spot for Fury Road!!! My fanboy-ing aside, the only real threat here I see is Adam McKay for The Big Short. He was up for the BAFTA as well as the DGA, and I wouldn't be one bit sad. The Big Short had star power but it was his movie. Oscar likes to play it safe though, and Todd Haynes has been nominated before for writing Far from Heaven. Will Iñárritu pull a Tom Hanks and win back to back? If the Globes are any indication: maybe.

• Alejandro González Iñárritu- The Revenant
• Tom McCarthy- Spotlight
• Todd Haynes- Carol
• George Miller- Mad Max: Fury Road
• Ridley Scott- The Martian

BEST ANIMATED FILM: Pixar's second offering of '15 The Good Dinosaur got good-not-great reviews, and Oscar for some reason loves to be weird with this category. Expect the left-field animated movie with a big voice cast The Prophet to pick up a weird nomination. The rest are in the bag.

• The Peanuts Movie
• Shaun the Sheep Movie
• Inside Out
• The Prophet
• Anomalisa

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Tarantino's script is wonderful, but it's just not his year again. This is either going to Spotlight or by some small chance Inside Out, just because of it's mind-twisting premise. Ex Machina won't get the volume of respect it deserves, but expect to see it represented here.

• The Hateful Eight
• Spotlight
• Ex Machina
• Bridge of Spies
• Inside Out

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Steve Jobs is fresh off its Globe win, and I think it's safe to say scribe Aaron Sorkin will be making his second trip up to the Oscar podium. But do not be surprised if The Big Short doesn't sneak up and take it. It was a huge undertaking: making this repellant financial jargon appealing to a general audience, and then adding all the fun, faux-documentary quirks that resulted in an extremely well-crafted film.

• Room
• The Martian
• The Big Short
• Carol
• Steve Jobs