OSCAR PREDICTIONS 2018!
Why beat around the bush! Let's dive right in...
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: (Call Me by Your Name, The Disaster Artist, Logan, Molly's Game, Mudbound)
I think Disaster Artist's nod here is more because it's a great concept, but the movie is pretty predictable as far as buddy pictures go. It's Franco who should've been up for playing Wiseau, but if the accusations against him are true, I'll feel a lot better letting this snub slide. All the nerds rejoiced when we heard Logan announced, but Call Me by Your Name is the clear winner here. It's slyly subtle dialogue hooks you in, and devastated you/makes you cheer in equal parts. Molly's Game is unbridled Sorkin goodness, and pretty underrated if you ask me, but CMBYN will walk away with the trophy.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: (The Big Sick, Get Out, Lady Bird, The Shape of Water, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
These movies are being recognized for being outstanding, fresh examples of their genres: the rom-com, the coming-of-age tale, the romance and the drama. These five were all in my top ten of the year, but only Get Out is almost genre-free. Horror? Thriller? Comedic? Satirical? Dramatic? Romantic? Everything. I understand Jordan Peele's frustration about the Globes' categorization of his film. It's beyond genre. That and the Writer's Guild Award win has me pushing this towards Peele's masterpiece.
BEST ANIMATED FILM: (The Boss Baby, The Breadwinner, Coco, Ferdinand, Loving Vincent)
The internet has had a ball referring to The Boss Baby as an Oscar nominee because...come on, it's pretty goofy. But if anything but Coco wins, the audience will have the same reaction as Jack Nicholson had to Crash winning.
BEST DIRECTOR: (Paul Thomas Anderson, Guillermo del Toro, Greta Gerwig, Christopher Nolan, Jordan Peele)
A pretty perfect mix of veteran auteurs with masterpieces under their belt (anyone up for a Magnolia/Pan's Labyrinth/Dark Knight triple feature?) and diverse new talent. It would be a huge shock if anyone but del Toro took this. It's honestly a shock he hasn't won by now. Anderson and Nolan will no doubt have at least five more masterpieces before they retire, and Gerwig and Peele are just warming up after being successful acting talent for so long.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: (Mary J. Blige, Allison Janney, Lesley Manville, Laurie Metcalf, Octavia Spencer)
I think I've expressed my confusion before why Blige has been getting all the attention in a movie full of rich, southern performances. Maybe it's because we're used to seeing the fabulously glammed-out singer in music videos, and here she pulls a Charlize Theron. Well, it worked, but not enough to take the prize away from clear frontrunner Janney as vicious skate-mom LaVona Golden. Fellow movie mom Laurie Metcalf's Marion McPherson seemed poised to win before the big award shows happened. I'm sure she'll dry her tears with her three Emmy Awards.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: (Willem Dafoe, Woody Harrelson, Richard Jenkins, Christopher Plummer, Sam Rockwell)
Watching The Green Mile when I was 12 changed a lot of things for me as a cinema buff, but the biggest question I had was who portrayed the demonically obnoxious Wild Bill? With the exception of Plummer (who's partially here for political reasons), this category is a celebration of character actors. Rockwell melts into any scene he's in like cinematic cotton candy. His racist cop is the source of a lot of flack towards Three Billboards..., but perhaps folks didn't stay around to see his entire arc in the film? It's nearly impossible for Woody Harrelson to give a bad performance, but Sam Rockwell shone bright as one of the most complex screen losers of 2017, and it's his time to shine on Oscar's stage.
BEST ACTRESS: (Sally Hawkins, Frances McDormand, Margot Robbie, Saoirse Ronan, Meryl Streep)
Robbie is the only Oscar virgin here, cementing her superstar status that started back in 2013 (where she was surely snubbed for supporting actress) when The Wolf of Wall Street catapulted her career. I was sure Hawkins' mute performance would make her an automatic front runner, but Frances McDormand is surely on her way to her second Academy Award, after her win for her iconic performance in 1996's Fargo. In Three Billboards... she plays an even tougher mother, who arguably has the best ever monologue directed to a priest in cinema history.
BEST ACTOR: (Timothée Chalamet, Daniel Day-Lewis, Daniel Kaluuya, Gary Oldman, Denzel Washington)
Another great mix of seasoned vets and fresh talent, I'm afraid four of these gentleman realize that only Oldman will be up on that podium. Yes, the movie is prime Oscar bait, and Darkest Hour is not as great as Oldman's Churchill, but the performance we get is truly one for the ages, a transformative wonder. Get ready to see Denzel make another sad/disappointed turtle face when his name isn't called again.
BEST PICTURE: (Call Me by Your Name, Darkest Hour, Dunkirk, Get Out, Lady Bird, Phantom Thread, The Post, The Shape of Water, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
There hasn't been a clear Oscar frontrunner since Argo waaaay back in early 2013, a simpler time. It's been 12 Years a Slave vs. Gravity, Birdman vs. Boyhood, The Revenant vs. Spotlight, La La Land vs. Moonlight, and now Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri vs. The Shape of Water. Billboards has taken home the Globe for Best Drama, the SAG for Best Cast and the BAFTA for Best Film. But Martin McDonagh wasn't nominated for Best Director, something a Best Picture hasn't overcome since Ben Affleck's thriller took it home. Shape of Water has the most nods, and del Toro will surely be crowned the best director of the year.
But, in my opinion, I strongly believe Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri will become the 90th recipient of one of the world's greatest prizes. Its relevance to Hollywood's massive #MeToo movement is too great to be ignored, and, for whatever this counts, it is an astonishing motion picture, filled with A-grade dialogue, performances, editing, music and cinematography. It is a mean, ferocious and difficult choice for Best Picture, but I would put all my chips on its victory tonight.
Below is my picks for the rest of the major film categories (I exclude the shorts because there's no way I can make an educated opinion on them). Feel free to come back and stack up how I did to how the night unfolds!
FILM EDITING: Baby Driver
CINEMATOGRAPHY: Blade Runner 2049
COSTUME DESIGN: Phantom Thread
DOCUMENTARY: Faces Places
FOREIGN FILM: A Fantastic Woman
MAKEUP/HAIRSTYLING: Darkest Hour
ORIGINAL SCORE: The Shape of Water
ORIGINAL SONG: "This is Me" from The Greatest Showman
PRODUCTION DESIGN: The Shape of Water
SOUND EDITING: Dunkirk
SOUND MIXING: Blade Runner 2049
VISUAL EFFECTS: Blade Runner 2049
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: (Call Me by Your Name, The Disaster Artist, Logan, Molly's Game, Mudbound)
I think Disaster Artist's nod here is more because it's a great concept, but the movie is pretty predictable as far as buddy pictures go. It's Franco who should've been up for playing Wiseau, but if the accusations against him are true, I'll feel a lot better letting this snub slide. All the nerds rejoiced when we heard Logan announced, but Call Me by Your Name is the clear winner here. It's slyly subtle dialogue hooks you in, and devastated you/makes you cheer in equal parts. Molly's Game is unbridled Sorkin goodness, and pretty underrated if you ask me, but CMBYN will walk away with the trophy.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: (The Big Sick, Get Out, Lady Bird, The Shape of Water, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
These movies are being recognized for being outstanding, fresh examples of their genres: the rom-com, the coming-of-age tale, the romance and the drama. These five were all in my top ten of the year, but only Get Out is almost genre-free. Horror? Thriller? Comedic? Satirical? Dramatic? Romantic? Everything. I understand Jordan Peele's frustration about the Globes' categorization of his film. It's beyond genre. That and the Writer's Guild Award win has me pushing this towards Peele's masterpiece.
BEST ANIMATED FILM: (The Boss Baby, The Breadwinner, Coco, Ferdinand, Loving Vincent)
The internet has had a ball referring to The Boss Baby as an Oscar nominee because...come on, it's pretty goofy. But if anything but Coco wins, the audience will have the same reaction as Jack Nicholson had to Crash winning.
BEST DIRECTOR: (Paul Thomas Anderson, Guillermo del Toro, Greta Gerwig, Christopher Nolan, Jordan Peele)
A pretty perfect mix of veteran auteurs with masterpieces under their belt (anyone up for a Magnolia/Pan's Labyrinth/Dark Knight triple feature?) and diverse new talent. It would be a huge shock if anyone but del Toro took this. It's honestly a shock he hasn't won by now. Anderson and Nolan will no doubt have at least five more masterpieces before they retire, and Gerwig and Peele are just warming up after being successful acting talent for so long.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: (Mary J. Blige, Allison Janney, Lesley Manville, Laurie Metcalf, Octavia Spencer)
I think I've expressed my confusion before why Blige has been getting all the attention in a movie full of rich, southern performances. Maybe it's because we're used to seeing the fabulously glammed-out singer in music videos, and here she pulls a Charlize Theron. Well, it worked, but not enough to take the prize away from clear frontrunner Janney as vicious skate-mom LaVona Golden. Fellow movie mom Laurie Metcalf's Marion McPherson seemed poised to win before the big award shows happened. I'm sure she'll dry her tears with her three Emmy Awards.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: (Willem Dafoe, Woody Harrelson, Richard Jenkins, Christopher Plummer, Sam Rockwell)
Watching The Green Mile when I was 12 changed a lot of things for me as a cinema buff, but the biggest question I had was who portrayed the demonically obnoxious Wild Bill? With the exception of Plummer (who's partially here for political reasons), this category is a celebration of character actors. Rockwell melts into any scene he's in like cinematic cotton candy. His racist cop is the source of a lot of flack towards Three Billboards..., but perhaps folks didn't stay around to see his entire arc in the film? It's nearly impossible for Woody Harrelson to give a bad performance, but Sam Rockwell shone bright as one of the most complex screen losers of 2017, and it's his time to shine on Oscar's stage.
BEST ACTRESS: (Sally Hawkins, Frances McDormand, Margot Robbie, Saoirse Ronan, Meryl Streep)
Robbie is the only Oscar virgin here, cementing her superstar status that started back in 2013 (where she was surely snubbed for supporting actress) when The Wolf of Wall Street catapulted her career. I was sure Hawkins' mute performance would make her an automatic front runner, but Frances McDormand is surely on her way to her second Academy Award, after her win for her iconic performance in 1996's Fargo. In Three Billboards... she plays an even tougher mother, who arguably has the best ever monologue directed to a priest in cinema history.
BEST ACTOR: (Timothée Chalamet, Daniel Day-Lewis, Daniel Kaluuya, Gary Oldman, Denzel Washington)
Another great mix of seasoned vets and fresh talent, I'm afraid four of these gentleman realize that only Oldman will be up on that podium. Yes, the movie is prime Oscar bait, and Darkest Hour is not as great as Oldman's Churchill, but the performance we get is truly one for the ages, a transformative wonder. Get ready to see Denzel make another sad/disappointed turtle face when his name isn't called again.
BEST PICTURE: (Call Me by Your Name, Darkest Hour, Dunkirk, Get Out, Lady Bird, Phantom Thread, The Post, The Shape of Water, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
There hasn't been a clear Oscar frontrunner since Argo waaaay back in early 2013, a simpler time. It's been 12 Years a Slave vs. Gravity, Birdman vs. Boyhood, The Revenant vs. Spotlight, La La Land vs. Moonlight, and now Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri vs. The Shape of Water. Billboards has taken home the Globe for Best Drama, the SAG for Best Cast and the BAFTA for Best Film. But Martin McDonagh wasn't nominated for Best Director, something a Best Picture hasn't overcome since Ben Affleck's thriller took it home. Shape of Water has the most nods, and del Toro will surely be crowned the best director of the year.
But, in my opinion, I strongly believe Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri will become the 90th recipient of one of the world's greatest prizes. Its relevance to Hollywood's massive #MeToo movement is too great to be ignored, and, for whatever this counts, it is an astonishing motion picture, filled with A-grade dialogue, performances, editing, music and cinematography. It is a mean, ferocious and difficult choice for Best Picture, but I would put all my chips on its victory tonight.
Below is my picks for the rest of the major film categories (I exclude the shorts because there's no way I can make an educated opinion on them). Feel free to come back and stack up how I did to how the night unfolds!
FILM EDITING: Baby Driver
CINEMATOGRAPHY: Blade Runner 2049
COSTUME DESIGN: Phantom Thread
DOCUMENTARY: Faces Places
FOREIGN FILM: A Fantastic Woman
MAKEUP/HAIRSTYLING: Darkest Hour
ORIGINAL SCORE: The Shape of Water
ORIGINAL SONG: "This is Me" from The Greatest Showman
PRODUCTION DESIGN: The Shape of Water
SOUND EDITING: Dunkirk
SOUND MIXING: Blade Runner 2049
VISUAL EFFECTS: Blade Runner 2049
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