2021 OSCAR PREDICTIONS!

BEST ACTOR: Predicting this victory truly feels like the only 100% certain bet we've had so far this season. It would be a gargantuan upset if anyone other than the late Boseman took home the trophy. I think this win will age as well as Peter Finch's and Heath Ledger's Oscars, which is to say...tremendously. If you knew nothing about what Mr. Boseman was enduring from 2016 to 2020, you would still be floored away by his agonized, fame-hungry Levee we get to see onscreen. I think Minari hype has been peaking at just the right time, so expect to see Yeun get that coveted fifth slot, though I would be one happy boy if Delroy Lindo was able to sneak in as the Trump-trumpeting treasure hunter Paul in Spike Lee's Da 5 Bloods. Reactions to Mank have ranged from new classic to drag, but I was delighted by Oldman's sassy lush. 

• Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
• Anthony Hopkins, The Father
• Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
• Gary Oldman, Mank
• Steven Yeun, Minari

BEST ACTRESS: Every awards buff had their mouth agape when Andra Day bested all of the below women in last month's Golden Globes. I'm copying and pasting from that list, because with that win and a Critic's Choice nom, Day has solidified that coveted fifth slot, elbowing out Zendaya in Malcolm & Marie, Sophia Loren in The Life Ahead and Sidney Flanigan in Never Rarely Sometimes Always. While I would personally be more than happy with Davis picking up her second Oscar in what I consider a career best, my gut tells me Frances might make that duo of statues a trio with the Nomadland hype on April 25th. Who should really get it, however? Kirby, for having to produce heartburn on command for her labor scene.

• Frances McDormand, Nomadland
• Viola Davis, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
• Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman
• Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
• Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Odom Jr., Baron Cohen and Kaluuya are all locks for portraying their real-life characters, with the latter being the clear frontrunner at the moment. While I personally don't think Boseman's extended cameo in Da 5 Bloods merits a nomination, I imagine the Oscar crowd will consider it a sign of respect and achievement as well as a somber swan song. Alan Kim from Minari has picked up a lot of support after his heart-melting Critic's Choice acceptance speech, and Bill Murray in On the Rocks and critically adorned Paul Raci in Sound of Metal are nothing to sneeze at. But my no-guts-no-glory pick is Straitharn as the sorta-kinda love interest of Frances McDormand in Nomadland. I'm predicting a huge night for Chloé Zhao's somber, spiritual drama, and the already-nominated Straitharn is gentle and bumbling and just in it enough to make it count and ride the wave.

• David Straitharn, Nomadland
• Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods
• Leslie Odom Jr., One Night in Miami...
• Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7
• Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Easily the funnest category to try to predict in years. Last year, right before Oscar nom morning, it was a formality that Laura Dern was nominated, she had it so locked up for Marriage Story. After Foster's surprise win at the Globes, this is any woman's game. Going in we predicted Glenn would finally triumph with her likely 8th nomination as a redneck granny. And who could miss pitting her against Olivia Colman, who famously trumped her chances of an Oscar redemption story with her win for The Favourite? Bakalova has just taken Critic's Choice, and, gun to my head...I might actually go with her?? It's such an unfriendly Oscar role in the vein of Melissa McCarthy in Bridesmaids that they may just award a genuinely committed, gonzo performance as Borat's misinformed daughter. It is the antithesis of a prestige actress like Glenn putting on makeup and accent like we've seen countless times before. Bakalova is fearless as Tutar.

• Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy
• Olivia Colman, The Father
• Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
• Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian
• Youn Yuh-jung, Minari

BEST DIRECTOR: Promising Young Woman will still fare just fine with nominations, and may even walk away with one or two statues, but I just think nominating three women in this category would make the old white farts in the Academy's collective heads explode. Zhao is the frontrunner and a given, and King is hella established and one of the most awards-friendly people working in Hollywood. Fincher and Sorkin also seem locked in for their biopics of Oscar-friendly material, so I'm giving this to Chung for his autobiographical Minari. He was also just nominated for the Director's Guild Award, so that doesn't hurt. With this lineup, it'll still be a big win for a diverse representation. Straight white men will finally be the minority.

• Chloé Zhao, Nomadland
• Lee Isaac Chung, Minari
• Regina King, One Night in Miami...
• David Fincher, Mank
• Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: I'm crossing all my fingers for an inclusion of Soul here, the movie nearest and dearest to my heart in 2020. Promising Young Woman would be a fun win for its twisty plot, but the more logical part of my brain assures me Aaron Sorkin will walk away with another script trophy for Chiacgo 7.

• Soul
• The Trial of the Chicago 7
• Mank
• Promising Young Woman
• Minari

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: The only wrench I'm throwing in here is First Cow. I haven't seen it, and have only seen one Kelly Reichardt movie, but man, I'm rooting for it. A movie this under the radar is bound to be overlooked by Oscar, but screenplay categories is always where they can reward a movie in just one place and it still be a big deal (see: Straight Outta Compton, Logan, Knives Out, etc). I'd personally love to see Zhao's adaptation that seems nearly docudrama in its realism be rewarded.  

• Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
• One Night in Miami...
• First Cow
• The Father
• Nomadland

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE: This is by far the category hit hardest due to COVID. I am truly throwing darts in the dark here, the only thing I know for sure is Soul is walking away with Pixar's 11th trophy in this category.

• Soul
• Wolfwalkers
• Over the Moon
• A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon
• Onward

BEST PICTURE: I can't tell you how it pains me not to predict Da 5 Bloods in here, but Netflix really decided to throw all its weight behind the obvious choices, Mank and Chicago 7. Spike Lee's movie was also a summer release, and after its complete shutout from the Globes, chances are looking grim. I am still uber-optimstic about Soul, and I'm hoping Disney+'s wild popularity will throw it into consideration. I highly doubt we're gonna see a full 10, and if I was to make cuts I'd toss One Night in Miami... and Soul for an even 8. As of this post, Nomadland is the one to beat, and if you have Hulu, I'd strongly recommend checking it out and seeing why it'll probably become the 93rd recipient of the year's top prize. It's my own favorite film of the year, and it would be a small consolation for the horrific goings-on of 2020, since the best thing to happen in that calendar year was a certain little Korean film cleaning up big.

• Soul
• The Trial of the Chicago 7
• Mank
• Promising Young Woman
• Minari
• Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
• One Night in Miami...
• Nomadland
• Judas and the Black Messiah
• Sound of Metal