OSCAR NOMINATIONS PREDICTIONS 2023!

I picked categories to predict that I thought I could actually attempt; goodness knows I never know anything about the shorts races, the doc races, or all the international contenders. But here, with a smattering of commentary, are my predictions for tomorrow's nominations: 

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY:

• All Quiet on the Western Front
• Avatar: The Way of Water
• Empire of Light
• The Fabelmans
• Top Gun: Maverick

BEST MAKEUP:

• All Quiet on the Western Front
• The Batman (Whale is probably winning this one come March, but I think Matt Reeves' superhero flick should get it for The Penguin alone)
• Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
• Elvis
• The Whale

BEST SCORE

• Babylon
• The Banshees of Inisherin
• Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
• The Fabelmans
• Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio

BEST ORIGINAL SONG: 

• "Nothing is Lost (You Give Me Strength)" from Avatar: The Way of Water
• "Lift Me Up" from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
• "Naatu Naatu" from RRR
• "Hold My Hand" from Top Gun: Maverick
• "Carolina" from Where the Crawdads Sing

BEST SOUND:

• All Quiet on the Western Front
• Avatar: The Way of Water
• Elvis 
  
• Everything Everywhere All at Once
• Top Gun: Maverick

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS:

• All Quiet on the Western Front
• Avatar: The Way of Water
• The Batman
• Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
• Top Gun: Maverick

BEST ANIMATED FILM:

• Apollo 10.5: A Space Age Childhood
• Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio
• Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
• Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
• Turning Red

BEST FILM EDITING:

• Elvis
• Everything Everywhere All at Once
• The Fabelmans
• Tár
• Top Gun: Maverick

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:

• Glass Onion
• Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio
• She Said
• The Whale
• Women Talking

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:

• The Banshees of Inisherin
• Everything Everywhere All at Once
• The Fabelmans
• Tár
• Triangle of Sadness

BEST DIRECTOR:

• Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once
• Todd Field, Tár
• Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin (I think this is finally the year he gets in Director)
• Ruben Östlund, Triangle of Sadness (this is my big gamble pick of the nominations. I wasn't even a particularly huge ToS fanboy, but the traction it's gotten, the Palme d'Or win, de Leon's inevitable nomination, I think it can be done)
• Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:

• Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
• Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
• Hong Chau, The Whale
• Dolly de Leon, Triangle of Sadness
• Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once (I enjoyed Prominent Nepo Baby Jamie Lee Curtis's small, balls-to-the-walls role, but we all know Stephanie Hsu deserves to be in this spot. My heart aside, my head is picking Curtis as the safe bet).

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:

• Paul Dano, The Fabelmans
• Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
• Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
• Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
• Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse

BEST ACTRESS:

• Cate Blanchett, Tár
• Viola Davis, The Woman King
• Ana de Armas, Blonde
• Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans
• Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once

BEST ACTOR:

• Austin Butler, Elvis
• Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick
• Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
• Brendan Fraser, The Whale
• Bill Nighy, Living (I have yet to encounter a single human being who has seen this movie, let alone raved about it, but Nighy has been scooping up precursors like crazy)

BEST PICTURE:

• All Quiet on the Western Front
• Avatar: The Way of Water
• The Banshees of Inisherin
• Elvis
• Everything Everywhere All at Once
• The Fabelmans
• RRR (yes, I'm giving AMPAS the BOTD that they'll be "progressive" enough to nominate two international films at the same time. I don't believe it's ever been done before, but S.S. Rajamouli's epic blockbuster can be the one to do it)
• Tár
• Top Gun: Maverick
• Triangle of Sadness