OSCAR PREDICTIONS 2011!

A wide variety of films are up for Best Picture this year, including one that got some pretty bad reviews, cough cough, "Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close."  I take a look at what will win and (IMO) what should win:

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: (The Ides of March, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, Hugo, The Descendants, Moneyball)
WILL WIN: While "TTSS" got this award at the BAFTAs, last year's winner Aaron Sorkin has got it again this year for "Moneyball."
SHOULD WIN: Moneyball.  It deserves it because it made an odd topic like baseball statistics seem interesting, and the character development is top-notch.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: (The Artist, Midnight in Paris, Margin Call, A Separation, Bridesmaids)
WILL WIN: Midnight in Paris.
SHOULD WIN:  Midnight in Paris.  It really doesn't get any more original from the mind of Woody Allen, who most likely won't even be there to accept it.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: (Christopher Plummer, Nick Nolte, Jonah Hill, Kenneth Branagh, Max von Sydow)
WILL WIN: Christopher Plummer.
SHOULD WIN: Nick Nolte or Max von Sydow.  "Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close" wasn't a great movie, it left me dumbfounded when I saw it was nominated for Best Picture, but certainly the best part of it was von Sydow's performance, one of the 3 silent performances up for an Oscar this year along with the folks from "The Artist."  Since it's almost a fact he's not going to win, I'm rooting for Nolte who gave an emotionally jarring performance as an alcoholic dad looking for redemption.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: (Berenice Bejo, Janet McTeer, Jessica Chastain, Melissa McCarthy, Octavia Spencer)
WILL WIN: Octavia Spencer.
SHOULD WIN: Octavia Spencer.  Why Bryce Dallas Howard has gotten absolutely no love for her performance in "The Help" is beyond me, but Spencer deserves this.  Honestly I haven't even seen "Bridesmaids" and I want McCarthy to win, just because she seems amazing.

BEST ACTRESS: (Glenn Close, Meryl Streep, Rooney Mara, Michelle Williams, Viola Davis)
WILL WIN: Viola Davis.  Streep won the BAFTA, but that's because she played a British icon.
SHOULD WIN: Michelle Williams. Davis shined in "The Help" but Williams was positively magnetic as Marilyn Monroe.  I know she won't win, but it'd be great if she did.

BEST ACTOR: (George Clooney, Demian Bichir, Brad Pitt, Jean Dujardin, Gary Oldman)

WILL WIN: This is the toughest race to predict.  Everyone was so sure Clooney was getting his 2nd Oscar this time around, but Dujardin has won the SAG award and the BAFTA, so I'm saying him.
SHOULD WIN: Clooney! While a silent performance isn't easy to pull off, so much emotional complexity is in Clooney's role!  Just give it to him!

BEST DIRECTOR: (Martin Scorsese, Michel Hazanavicius, Woody Allen, Terrence Malick, Alexander Payne)
WILL WIN: Michel Haz-a-nuh-vee-shoo.
SHOULD WIN: Malick.  "Tree of Life" features good performances, but it's a pure director's film.  The scope of the film is magnificient.

BEST PICTURE: (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, Hugo, The Help, Moneyball, The Tree of Life, The Artist, The Descendants, Midnight in Paris, War Horse)
WILL WIN:  So it comes down to this.  The film that will take its rightful place among such giants as "Schindler's List," "Gladiator" and "The Silence of the Lambs."  And...I'm thinking it's "The Artist."  If it does win it'll be the first silent film to win since the Oscar's very first show when "Wings" won.  Now "Artist" is nowhere near as good as "Wings," but it wasn't really about the story.  The fact that a black and white silent film could be made in 2011 has really impressed people.

"Yeah....I'm gonna win."

SHOULD WIN: "Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2."  But since that didn't get anything but a few technical nods, I'll go with "The Descendants."  This is actually the first year I've seen all the nominees, (though I did snooze a little in "War Horse) and there hasn't really been a bad movie among them.  "ELIC" was sad, "Midnight in Paris" was funny, "War Horse" was epic,  "The Help" was powerful, "Hugo" was ambitious, "The Artist" was clever, "Moneyball" was smart...and I still have no idea what "The Tree of Life" was.  But "Descendants" was a human drama featuring a very sad topic that left you thinking. The performances are great, the script is great...it just deserves the prize!