OSCAR NOMINATION PREDICTIONS 2017!

#OscarsSoDiverse? I'm hoping the Oscars will set the correction straight on this one, hopefully rewarding the actions of people of color like Barry Jenkins, Ruth Negga and Mahershala Ali. That's just amidst others, Ali and Fences frontrunner Viola Davis are on their way to supporting actor glory. Octavia Spencer and Denzel Washington, already Oscar-winners, are poised to be nominated once again! But the film that I predict will get nominations in the double digits goes beyond color to deliver one of the century's finest musicals; I've called it since I saw it on December 27th that La La Land will make a clean sweep, hold for Ryan Gosling, who'll deservedly lose to Casey Affleck in Manchester by the Sea. Check out the rest of my picks for this coming Tuesday morning in all the major categories.

 BEST DIRECTOR: Chazelle is the clear frontrunner, but it'll be nice to see Jenkins, who might be only the fourth black director nominated in this category. Let's hope the Academy doesn't pull an Ava DuVernay.
  • Damien Chazelle- La La Land
  • Barry Jenkins- Moonlight
  • Kenneth Lonergan- Manchester by the Sea
  • Denis Villenueve- Arrival
  • David Mackenzie- Hell or High Water
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Whit Stilman's Jane Austen adaptation certainly deserves to be here, and has been getting some love in the critic's circles. Love and Friendship should be getting more attention than just that, including Kate Beckinsale's diabolically polite performance. The rest have been staples in this field, including the late August Wilson for Fences, Tom Ford for his Hitchcockian yarn and Barry Jenkins' innovative script, that was deemed adapted from Tarell Alvin McCraney's play earlier this year, leaving the Original field more wide open.
  • Fences
  • Arrival
  • Nocturnal Animals
  • Moonlight
  • Love and Friendship
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: My heart wants Manchester by the Sea to win, for the way it unraveled a devastating story, but after the Globes sweep I don't doubt that Chazelle's take on the Golden Hollywood musical will take the prize. Lobster and HOHW are the indie favorites, and Toni Erdmann might be that wacky foreign movie that'll get nominated for this and Best Foreign Film, and my money is for this movie to win the latter.
  • Hell or High Water
  • The Lobster
  • Manchester by the Sea
  • La La Land
  • Toni Erdmann
BEST ANIMATED FILM: Zootopia has been cleaning up here, and I predict its inevitable victory on February 26th. But the Oscars love picking these oddball, left-field foreign cartoons along with the Disney mammoths. Brazil's Boy and the World and Japan's When Marnie Was There was that last year. Now I'm thinking the French-Swiss Zucchini and the Japanese-French-Belgium co-production Red Turtle will be those picks.
  • Moana
  • My Life as a Zucchini 
  • Kubo and the Two Strings
  • The Red Turtle
  • Zootopia
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: I thought Ali had a lock on this until the Globes turned a 180, rewarding Taylor-Johnson for his menacing turn as the white trash Ray Marcus as the best supporting actor of the year. Coupled with a BAFTA nomination, I think the tides have turned from Michael Shannon's role as a determined lawman getting nominated to Taylor-Johnson getting his first nomination. I still think Ali will win, but I wouldn't call him a frontrunner anymore.
  • Mahershala Ali- Moonlight 
  • Jeff Bridges- Hell or High Water
  • Aaron Taylor-Johnson- Nocturnal Animals
  • Dev Patel- Lion
  • Lucas Hedges- Manchester by the Sea
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: It's mostly been this group of five ladies throughout the campaign, with three women of color likely to get nominated. Much has been said of Williams' performance, but I thought it was substantially shorter than what the advertisement promised!
  • Nicole Kidman- Lion
  • Naomie Harris- Moonlight
  • Michelle Williams- Manchester by the Sea
  • Viola Davis- Fences
  • Octavia Spencer- Hidden Figures
BEST ACTOR: Like Leo before them, the rest of these nominees must know that this nomination is just brownie points, because it's been Affleck's gold from the start. This is the cateogry I'm least sure about; it was a strong year for leading men. These men have garnered lots of attention, but so as Tom Hanks in Sully, Joel Edgerton in Loving and Jake Gyllenhaal in Nocturnal Animals (who just got a BAFTA nomination in a really underrated role).
  • Casey Affleck- Manchester by the Sea
  • Viggo Mortensen- Captain Fantastic
  • Ryan Gosling- La La Land
  • Denzel Washington- Fences
  • Andrew Garfield- Hacksaw Ridge
BEST ACTRESS: Hupert pulled off one of the night's biggest surprises at the Golden Globes, beating Hollywood favorites like Adams and Portman. But, despite the latter getting major attention for Jackie, she's already won in this category before, and everyone is talking about Emma Stone's performance. It's not that it's star-making, because we already knew she had the talent. It's star-solidifying, a role that may go down in history as her signature. Rewarding a role about one of the world's most celebrated woman is easy, rewarding a female leading role in an original musical would be stellar, something that hasn't been achieved since Julie Andrews won for Mary Poppins.
  • Ruth Negga- Loving
  • Natalie Portman- Jackie
  • Isabelle Huppert- Elle
  • Emma Stone- La La Land
  • Amy Adams- Arrival
BEST PICTURE: What do a sci-fi, a western, a musical, a war movie and two all-black cast movies have in common? They're a part of a diverse, eccentric and strong list of potential nominees. La La Land will dance away with the trophy, but 2016 was a fine year for the movies, and this year will prove it. My only iffy one here is Scorcese's Silence, which I'm throwing in just to round out the ten nominees, which of course never get used to the full potential. I've bolded the ones I think would be nominated if this were back to the simpler times of 2008, when five was the norm.

Check back on Tuesday to see how I did!
  • Arrival
  • Fences
  • Hidden Figures
  • Hell or High Water
  • La La Land
  • Lion
  • Manchester by the Sea
  • Moonlight
  • Nocturnal Animals
  • Silence

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