I'm doing 'em all this year! Bold indicates my personal preference, red is what I think will win. NOTE: I will only include my preference if I've seen at least 3 out of the 5 nominees.
BEST PICTURE: It gets under my craw that some are complaining that nothing happens in Chloé Zhao's soon-to-be-Oscar-winning Nomadland. The film depicts nothing less than the journey of a spirit, the chronicling of grief and the experiencing of a shift of the American mindset. But sure, let's focus on Frances McDormand defecating in a bucket. Won't the haters feel like a poop-bucket when Nomadland makes a clean sweep of the BAFTA's, the Globes, the Critic's Choice, and now the Academy Awards.
- The Father
- Judas and the Black Messiah
- Mank
- Minari
- Nomadland
- Promising Young Woman
- Sound of Metal
- The Trial of the Chicago 7
BEST DIRECTOR: Everyone is worthy. Fincher should've won a decade ago for Social Network (maybe we could've avoided that year's winner Tom Hooper eventually directing Cats), but this won't be his consolation prize. I certainly don't dismiss Mank as Oscar-bait, and I'm glad for Fincher's inclusion here, because the film is his vision alone. Vinterberg walked the tight rope of comedy and tragedy in his mid-life crisis excursion, Fennell directed her own twisty script to make last year's best thriller, Chung gave us an achingly personal meditation on his experience with the American Dream, but it's Zhao who will walk home the first Asian female winner for Best Director. Her blending of fiction and nonfiction for a wholly unique dive into a fascinating culture will be a win for the ages, but no one's a loser here.
- Lee Isaac Chung, Minari
- Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman
- David Fincher, Mank
- Thomas Vinterberg, Another Round
- Chloé Zhao, Nomadland
BEST ACTOR: A near all-timer that would've cemented its status as one of the greatest lineups if they'd just swapped out Delroy Lindo's Trumper veteran for Gary Oldman's boozy screenwriter (too bad the Academy loves giving people Oscars playing people who were given Oscars). I wish they could divide the trophy into thirds for Ahmed, Hopkins and the late Boseman. Hopkins is in an extremely Oscar-friendly role that could've been irredeemably hammy, but winds up a touching portrait of a hard-to-stomach geezer. Boseman will win this trophy for his powerful, remorseful role of a trumpeter longing for recognition. I think, if I were an Oscar voter, I'd give it to underdog Ahmed who has sadly been sidelined this season. His Ruben carries his burdens squarely on his shoulders, and the range of grief to hope to acceptance has Sound of Metal living or dying by his performance. A star was born in Nightcrawler, and now a star has been realized in Darius Marder's film.
- Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
- Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
- Anthony Hopkins, The Father
- Gary Oldman, Mank
- Steven Yeun, Minari
BEST ACTRESS: The category that has driven Oscar pundits mad this season. It's been an absolute roller coaster trying to predict this one! I wish awards season had a lineup like this every year. Davis won the SAG. Day shocked us all with her Globe victory. McDormand just nabbed the BAFTA. Mulligan was an early favorite picking up her Critic's Choice. Could they check off all the boxes and give it to Kirby's grieving mother performance? There's a 20% chance I'm right here, and I'm not giving myself any more credit. I'm going to bite the bullet and go with Davis here for her second win in an August Wilson movie. Can she be in all of them, please? There's been some controversy over on Film Twitter whether she should be in Best Actress in the first place. She's only in it for 26:41, less than 30% of the film's runtime. But to me it's not a question that she's the leading actress. Her Ma commands the room and the mood of every scene she graces us with. It's a performance that the Academy doesn't like to recognize Viola for. They've given her nominations for playing a maid and a beleaguered housewife. I hope they see the brilliance in rewarding her for playing an unapologetic singer, who has the entire recording studio and band by the balls.
- Viola Davis, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
- Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
- Frances McDormand, Nomadland
- Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman
- Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: My own personal definition of a supporting role is a scene-stealer. Seyfried is in >20 minutes of Mank, and she soars in that allotment. Colman and Bakalova have much more central roles, and especially for the latter I could make an easy argument for her inclusion in Best Actress. Close did not deserve the Razzie nomination she got for Elegy, but she certainly doesn't deserve the Oscar. It's another grandmother's role to lose, and Youn, who pops up in the second act of Minari as the Mountain Dew guzzling, potty-mouthed mother of burdened wife Monica, is one of the worthiest winners in memory.
- Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
- Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy
- Olivia Colman, The Father
- Amanda Seyfried, Mank
- Youn Yuh-jung, Minari
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: I feel like I can't honestly give my preference here because I haven't seen Judas, which has clear frontrunner Kaluuya. It's interesting to note Raci is the only performer here who is not playing a real person. If anyone else takes the trophy besides Kaluuya, it'll be an upset for the ages.
- Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7
- Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
- Leslie Odom Jr., One Night in Miami...
- Paul Raci, Sound of Metal
- LaKeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: The twists and turns of Fennell's #MeToo revenge flick are too irresistible to ignore, and with a BAFTA and WGA under her belt, this seems like it's gonna be her night, and the one aspect of the film Oscar will reward.
- Judas and the Black Messiah
- Minari
- Promising Young Woman
- Sound of Metal
- The Trial of the Chicago 7
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: I enjoyed Miami... but it's still a very evident stage adaptation, something similar stage-to-screen work Father avoids through clever editing. It's the subtlest script that told me the best story that I think will be rewarded here. Zhao will get statues for writing, directing and producing her film.
- Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
- The Father
- Nomadland
- One Night in Miami...
- The White Tiger
BEST ANIMATED FILM: This is Soul's, but I'm dying to check out Wolfwalkers!
- Onward
- Over the Moon
- A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon
- Soul
- Wolfwalkers
BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM: Vinterberg's Director nom feels like enough to propel this to the podium, but don't count out the widely acclaimed ...Aida? and Collective which snagged a documentary nomination too.
- Another Round
- Better Days
- Collective
- The Man Who Sold His Skin
- Quo Vadis, Aida?
BEST DOCUMENTARY: I have only seen Crip Camp on Netflix, and would love for this to produce an upset, but my girlfriend tells me the sentimental story about a man and his mollusk is adorable and worthy.
- Collective
- Crip Camp
- The Mole Agent
- My Octopus Teacher
- Time
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE: After listening to all of these, I think frontrunner Soul is still the most deserving. Joe's entrance into the afterlife had one of the best accompaniments I heard all year. Emile Mosseri's euphoric if sometimes intrusive Minari score would be a fine runner-up.
- Da 5 Bloods
- Mank
- Minari
- News of the World
- Soul
BEST ORIGINAL SONG: I think it's Diane Warren's time. But what a lame lineup. Three of them have the same, bland stand-up-and-fight title!
- "Fight for You" (Judas and the Black Messiah)
- "Hear My Voice" (The Trial of the Chicago 7)
- "Husavik" (Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga)
- "Io sì (Seen)" (The Life Ahead)
- "Speak Now" (One Night in Miami...)
BEST SOUND: Having us experiencing Ruben's deafness alongside him was a stroke of genius.
- Greyhound
- Mank
- News of the World
- Soul
- Sound of Metal
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN: This was Mank's from preproduction.
- The Father
- Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
- Mank
- News of the World
- Tenet
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY: If you're gonna take a page from anyone, let it be Terrence Malick.
- Judas and the Black Messiah
- Mank
- News of the World
- Nomadland
- The Trial of the Chicago 7
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING: A fairly safe bet for Ma Rainey, and after being traumatized as a child seeing Roberto Benignini's Pinocchio, I'm too terrified to see this version also featuring him, but word on the street is the makeup is phenomenal.
- Emma.
- Hillbilly Elegy
- Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
- Mank
- Pinocchio
BEST COSTUME DESIGN: I'm fairly certain Ma Rainey is picking this one up too, but I loved the old Hollywood outfits of yore in Mank.
- Emma.
- Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
- Mank
- Mulan
- Pinocchio
BEST FILM EDITING: No editing this year really stood out to me except for Yorgos Lamprinos's cut of The Father. The editing here buried you in a loop of memories and half-truths and partial conversations, putting you in the mind of an Alzheimer's victim. I don't have The Father winning anything tonight, but this surprise victory sure would be lovely. Oftentimes Best Sound and Best Editing go hand-in-hand, so I'll stick with Mikkel E.G. Nielsen's editing of Sound of Metal.
- The Father
- Nomadland
- Promising Young Woman
- Sound of Metal
- The Trial of the Chicago 7
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS: I have seen none of these :( But two films last decade alone went to Nolan flicks, so it's a safe, sci-fi bet.
- Love and Monsters
- The Midnight Sky
- Mulan
- The One and Only Ivan
- Tenet
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