OSCAR NOMINATIONS PREDICTIONS 2023!

I picked categories to predict that I thought I could actually attempt; goodness knows I never know anything about the shorts races, the doc races, or all the international contenders. But here, with a smattering of commentary, are my predictions for tomorrow's nominations: 

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY:
  • All Quiet on the Western Front
  • Avatar: The Way of Water
  • Empire of Light
  • The Fabelmans
  • Top Gun: Maverick
BEST MAKEUP:
  • All Quiet on the Western Front
  • The Batman (Whale is probably winning this one come March, but I think Matt Reeves' superhero flick should get it for The Penguin alone)
  • Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
  • Elvis
  • The Whale
BEST SCORE
  • Babylon
  • The Banshees of Inisherin
  • Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
  • The Fabelmans
  • Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio
BEST ORIGINAL SONG: 
  • "Nothing is Lost (You Give Me Strength)" from Avatar: The Way of Water
  • "Lift Me Up" from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
  • "Naatu Naatu" from RRR
  • "Hold My Hand" from Top Gun: Maverick
  • "Carolina" from Where the Crawdads Sing
BEST SOUND:
  • All Quiet on the Western Front
  • Avatar: The Way of Water
  • Elvis 
  • Everything Everywhere All at Once
  • Top Gun: Maverick
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS:
  • All Quiet on the Western Front
  • Avatar: The Way of Water
  • The Batman
  • Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
  • Top Gun: Maverick
BEST ANIMATED FILM:
  • Apollo 10.5: A Space Age Childhood
  • Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio
  • Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
  • Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
  • Turning Red
BEST FILM EDITING:
  • Elvis
  • Everything Everywhere All at Once
  • The Fabelmans
  • Tár
  • Top Gun: Maverick
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
  • Glass Onion
  • Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio
  • She Said
  • The Whale
  • Women Talking
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
  • The Banshees of Inisherin
  • Everything Everywhere All at Once
  • The Fabelmans
  • Tár
  • Triangle of Sadness
BEST DIRECTOR:
  • Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once
  • Todd Field, Tár
  • Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin (I think this is finally the year he gets in Director)
  • Ruben Östlund, Triangle of Sadness (this is my big gamble pick of the nominations. I wasn't even a particularly huge ToS fanboy, but the traction it's gotten, the Palme d'Or win, de Leon's inevitable nomination, I think it can be done)
  • Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
  • Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
  • Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
  • Hong Chau, The Whale
  • Dolly de Leon, Triangle of Sadness
  • Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once (I enjoyed Prominent Nepo Baby Jamie Lee Curtis's small, balls-to-the-walls role, but we all know Stephanie Hsu deserves to be in this spot. My heart aside, my head is picking Curtis as the safe bet).
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
  • Paul Dano, The Fabelmans
  • Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
  • Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
  • Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
  • Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse
BEST ACTRESS:
  • Cate Blanchett, Tár
  • Viola Davis, The Woman King
  • Ana de Armas, Blonde
  • Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans
  • Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
BEST ACTOR:
  • Austin Butler, Elvis
  • Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick
  • Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
  • Brendan Fraser, The Whale
  • Bill Nighy, Living (I have yet to encounter a single human being who has seen this movie, let alone raved about it, but Nighy has been scooping up precursors like crazy)
BEST PICTURE:
  • All Quiet on the Western Front
  • Avatar: The Way of Water
  • The Banshees of Inisherin
  • Elvis
  • Everything Everywhere All at Once
  • The Fabelmans
  • RRR (yes, I'm giving AMPAS the BOTD that they'll be "progressive" enough to nominate two international films at the same time. I don't believe it's ever been done before, but S.S. Rajamouli's epic blockbuster can be the one to do it)
  • Tár
  • Top Gun: Maverick
  • Triangle of Sadness

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